March Madness Preview!

 It's the best time of the year! We are hours removed from Selection Sunday and now have had some time to sit and think about the bracket and what some of the things that the committee revealed they valued are. In this post I am going to do a breakdown of each region and some of my initial thoughts and predictions about the bracket. Comment your thoughts, matchups you are looking forward to, and what players you are excited to watch! It's March!

SOUTH REGION

OVERALL THOUGHTS

• The path to the Final Four seems to be relatively easy for the top two seeds, Auburn and Michigan State. I do not see many teams being a true threat to either of those teams right now. Some people worry about Auburn dropping 3 of their last 4, but those are all losses to other Sweet 16 type teams and it is never a good idea to bet against Izzo in March.
• North Carolina does not deserve to be in the tournament. Simply put their resume was not good enough with a 1-12 Q1 record. However, I do actually see a path for them to maybe make a run to the Sweet 16. RJ Davis is a star player and that matters in March. I see them beating SDSU in the First Four and I like their potential matchup against Ole Miss. With Keshon Gilbert being out of Iowa State, I think that could also open the door for another upset win for the Tarheels in the Second Round. I am a firm believer the committee messed up letting UNC in. With that being said, I would not be super surprised if Hubert Davis led the Heels on a decent run in the tournament.
• The committee contradicted itself with its seeding of ACC teams in this region. It was a historically weak season for the conference this year, no doubt. But, if they are to reward UNC for having a mediocre record in this conference, they seemed to punish Louisville for the same. The runner up in both the regular season and conference tournament, the Cardinals seemed like a 7 seed was worst case scenario.
• The Keshon Gilbert injury for Iowa State sucks. Early on in the season the Cyclones seemed like one of the undisputed best four teams in the nation, but injuries derailed their season (if you consider falling to a 3 seed being derailed). Gilbert is a go to scorer and will be missed in the tournament.

FAVORITE MATCHUPS

• Louisville vs Creighton - Both teams feel under seeded. Both finished second in the regular season in their respective conferences and were runner-ups in their conference tournament. Terrence Edwards Jr and Chucky Hepburn headline one of the nation's best backcourts for the Cardinals but I think Kalkbrenner and Co. have more depth for the Blue Jays. The winner of this matchup will give a game to #1 overall seed Auburn in the Second Round.
• Michigan vs UC San Diego - This is an intriguing matchup of two contrasting styles. The Wolverines turn the ball over at an extremely high rate and the Tritons lead the nation in TO margin. UCSD has been a mid-major darling amongst the basketball community for much of the season but I think in the end the overall talent of Michigan wins this game.

STOCK WATCH

• Ryan Kalkbrenner (Creighton) - The four time Big East Defensive Player of the Year is someone that has a place in the NBA. An elite rim protector, with good movement skills, and decent offensive touch. With a good March run I can see him moving up draft boards into the early second round.
• Tahaad Pettiford (Auburn) - Pettiford has been one of the better freshman in the country this season. A little undersized, it is expected that he returns to Auburn for his sophomore season. Right now he is a projected second round pick, but he can rise up the boards if he puts on some good performances as the Tigers look to make a run towards a championship.
• Donovan Dent (New Mexico) - Dent has been one of the best point guards in the nation this season. I think being put on a national stage can create some more national buzz for him to make the leap to the next level.
• Ian Jackson and Drake Powell (North Carolina) - The highly touted freshman have been streaky all season. Both have shown flashes of why they were rated so highly coming into the season. If they can help UNC win some games and show the NBA scouts what they do best, I wouldn't be surprised if they declared for the NBA draft.

WEST REGION

OVERALL THOUGHTS

• This is by far the toughest region of the whole bracket. Florida, Texas Tech, and St John's were some of my favorite picks to make the Final Four. Now they're all on the same side of the bracket with a potential Texas Tech vs St John's matchup in the Sweet 16! The other teams in the West are also very good. Amongst them we have Maryland which is an uber talented team, Drake is a trendy lower seed, Bill Self and John Calipari are two of the greatest coaches ever, UConn is the two time defending champions, and other teams such as Memphis and Missouri who have potential to make the second weekend.
• The committee rewarded Memphis for its gauntlet of a non-conference schedule and it was one of the more pleasant surprises of any bracket release. Most bracketologists predicted the Tigers to be a 7 or 8 seed due to their poor predictive metrics and a few Q3 losses. The committee instead rewarded Memphis for its 11 Q1/Q2 wins. Unfortunately the Tigers are rewarded with a matchup against Nique Clifford and Colorado State, one of the hottest teams in college basketball in the last few months.

FAVORITE MATCHUPS

• Kansas vs Arkansas - Two teams that did not reach preseason expectations. Kansas started the season as the #1 team in the AP Poll and failed to play to KU standards. Calipari and the Hogs struggled at first amidst the brutal SEC schedule. The coaching legends make for an interesting storyline, but the fact that both teams have such high ceilings but have failed to hit that ceiling for most of the season is what intrigues me the most. Which Kansas do we get? Which Arkansas do we get? Boogie Fland being back for Arkansas after missing the last 15 games adds another interesting element.
• Missouri vs Drake - Some think that Drake might be the best mid major in the country. Ben McCollum and his team of former D2 players have been fantastic all season and boast a win over tournament team Vanderbilt. Can their dream season continue against the ninth best scoring team in Mizzou? They will be one of the most popular upset picks this post season.
• Memphis vs Colorado State - At this moment Colorado State is a 3.5 point favorite as a 12 seed, largely due to Memphis PG Tyrese Hunter being injured. Memphis has enough star power with PJ Haggerty and Dain Dainja to lift the Tigers, but Colorado State has the best NBA prospect with Nique Clifford. Will be one of the popular lower seed picks.

STOCK WATCH

• Walter Clayton Jr (Florida) - The lead man for the 1 seeded Gators deserves more NBA buzz. He is one of those prospects I think may be over looked and over thought due to his age and smaller height. Clayton is a bucket and I expect him to show the NBA world he deserves a roster spot.
• Alex Condon (Florida) - I am higher on Condon than consensus, even though he has been rising on draft boards lately. I have Condon as a top 15 prospect and the 3rd best center prospect at this moment. While he is not thought of that highly from most draft boards I have seen, I expect him to impress.
• Bennett Stirtz (Drake) - Stirtz is one of the darling's of the draft community. Question marks about his game and how it translates against better competition are fair, but he has an opportunity to show the world he is a legit NBA player.
• RJ Luis (St. John's) - The Big East Player of the Year has not earned much NBA buzz. While I expect him to likely return next season, he is definitely worthy of being drafted and can show scouts his worth leading the Johnnie's to a deep run.

EAST REGION

OVERALL THOUGHTS

• This is Duke's region to lose. They are among the elite teams of the past two decades according to most metrics. They have potentially 3 top 10 NBA picks and one of the best prospects of the last 25 years. I struggle to see a route where they do not reach the Elite 8 at minimum. I like Oregon, Arizona, and Alabama as the teams most likely to challenge the Blue Devils.
• I can predict the most lower seeded upsets of any region to happen out East! I think Baylor, Liberty, Akron, VCU, and Vanderbilt all have good chances to win their respective First Round matchups.

FAVORITE MATCHUPS

• Mississippi State vs Baylor - This is the epitome of an 8/9 matchup. I flip flop back and forth on who I think will win. In the end I think it comes down to the guard matchup. If Josh Hubbard is the best player on the court then I think the Bulldogs pull it off.
• Arizona vs Akron - Arizona is hot right now coming off a run in the Big 12 tournament. Caleb Love has been playing the best basketball maybe of his college career lately. They are running into the Akron Zips who boast the eighth best scoring offense in the nation. Could be a track race and a fun offensive explosion!
• BYU vs VCU - BYU relies heavily on the three point line as they made the 10th most threes per game in the regular season. VCU has the eighth best scoring defense in the nation. If VCU can slow down the 3 point barrage the Cougars will release, then I think the Rams pull off the upset.

STOCK WATCH

• Nate Bittle (Oregon) - Bittle is one of the best two way big men in the nation. Bittle is a great rim protector, post scorer, and has shown touch on his jump shot. He has some second round buzz and I think he can boost his stock with more stellar performances in the tournament.
• Egor Demin and Kanon Catchings (BYU) - Two highly touted freshman who have seen their stock drop over the season. Catchings has not really shown me enough to warrant him going pro this season, but some big performances can see him make the jump. Demin started the season getting top 5 shouts but has seen his stock drop significantly. Can he remind the world of the early season flashes?
• John Tonje (Wisconsin) - Tonje is one of the best players in the country. I think that he can earn his way into second round conversations with more stellar play and at minimum can get 2-Way offers in the NBA.

MIDWEST REGION

OVERALL THOUGHTS

• I think this is the weakest region in the bracket. Outside of Houston I do not see a true championship contender.
• Gonzaga got the reverse treatment that Memphis did. Gonzaga is top 10 in the NET and most predictive metrics but lack quality wins. They were punished with an 8 seed, which could be a worry for Kelvin Sampson and the Houston Cougars if they both advance to the Second Round.
• Can Kentucky overcome the injury bug? Wildcats have already lost guards Kerr Kriisa and Jaxson Robinson for the season, but hopefully can get Lamont Butler back. A very talented team overall but I wonder if the consistency will be there as they have constantly dealt with being shorthanded.
• McNeese and High Point will be popular upset picks! Will be fun to see if they can pull it off.

FAVORITE MATCHUPS

• Clemson vs McNeese - I think Clemson is a very well rounded team but they are matched up against one of the better 12 seeds. McNeese is headlined by Will Wade, who is thought of as one of the best up and coming coaches, and has 5 players who average double digit points. McNeese is not your typical mid major as they are constructed of players who previously played at power conference schools. That being said I still think Clemson pulls it off.
• Gonzaga vs Georgia - Like I previously mentioned, Gonzaga may be considered under seeded by lots of the metrics. I am very much looking forward to the potential matchup of Graham Ike vs Asa Newell down low. Ike is one of the most unguardable post players in the country and I am curious to see what Georgia's gameplan is to slow them down.

STOCK WATCH

• Eric Dailey Jr (UCLA) - I like Dailey as an athletic wing prospect. He has tools to be a good wing defender and has shown vast offensive improvement in his sophomore season. I could see him improving his worth in the eyes of scouts with some good performances.